# Chen Zhao: Antarctic sea-level commitment under temporary climate overshoot

**URL:** <https://forum.access-hive.org.au/t/chen-zhao-antarctic-sea-level-commitment-under-temporary-climate-overshoot/7177>\
**Category:** COSIMA/Cryosphere Workshop 2026 Abstracts\
**Created:** [5 November 2026 21:55 UTC](https://forum.access-hive.org.au/t/chen-zhao-antarctic-sea-level-commitment-under-temporary-climate-overshoot/7177 "2026-11-05T21:55:28Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
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**Author:** ![lachlanswhyborn](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex020/user_avatar/forum.access-hive.org.au/lachlanswhyborn/32/1837_2.png) [@lachlanswhyborn](https://forum.access-hive.org.au/u/lachlanswhyborn)\
**Post date:** [5 November 2026 21:55 UTC](https://forum.access-hive.org.au/t/chen-zhao-antarctic-sea-level-commitment-under-temporary-climate-overshoot/7177/1 "2026-11-05T21:55:28Z")

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Chen Zhao: Antarctic sea-level commitment under temporary climate overshoot

Temporary exceedance of global temperature targets is increasingly plausible, yet the long-term consequences of climate overshoot for the Antarctic Ice Sheet remain poorly understood. Because ice-sheet and ocean adjustment occurs over decades to centuries, temporary warming may leave a lasting Antarctic response even after atmospheric conditions recover.  
Here, we use continental-scale Antarctic ice-sheet modelling to investigate how temporary climate overshoot influences multi-century Antarctic sea-level commitment. A suite of controlled climate-forcing experiments is used to examine how the characteristics of overshoot and subsequent climate recovery affect the magnitude and persistence of the Antarctic response. We further investigate the processes responsible for continued ice-sheet change following mitigation and assess the robustness of the response to key uncertainties in ice-sheet and climate forcing.  
Our simulations reveal a persistent Antarctic legacy of temporary climate overshoot, with greater exposure to elevated climate forcing leading to increased long-term sea-level commitment. The results also demonstrate an important role for the contrasting response timescales of the atmosphere, ocean and ice sheet in determining the consequences of overshoot.  
These findings highlight that achieving temperature recovery does not necessarily imply an equivalent recovery of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, with implications for long-term sea-level risk under pathways that temporarily exceed climate targets.