# Greta Paget: Investigating the relationship between median and extreme temperature changes after emissions cessation

**URL:** https://forum.access-hive.org.au/t/greta-paget-investigating-the-relationship-between-median-and-extreme-temperature-changes-after-emissions-cessation/6869
**Category:** ESM/Land/CMIP7 Workshop 2026 Lightnings Talks
**Created:** [20 August 2026 05:41 UTC](https://forum.access-hive.org.au/t/greta-paget-investigating-the-relationship-between-median-and-extreme-temperature-changes-after-emissions-cessation/6869 "2026-08-20T05:41:50Z")
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#### Post date: [20 August 2026 05:41 UTC](https://forum.access-hive.org.au/t/greta-paget-investigating-the-relationship-between-median-and-extreme-temperature-changes-after-emissions-cessation/6869/1 "2026-08-20T05:41:51Z")

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Greta Paget: Investigating the relationship between median and extreme temperature changes after emissions cessation

Author Information:  
Greta Paget (UNSW School of Mathematics and Statistics, ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather), AProf. Jan Zika (UNSW School of Mathematics and Statistics), Prof. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick (ANU Fenner School of Environment and Society, ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather), Prof. Lisa Alexander (UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather)

1. Introduction and scientific context  
In pre-net-zero climate models, some regions experience increases in the magnitude of heat extremes at a faster rate than increases in local median temperatures. However, this relationship has not yet been investigated in post-net-zero climate models, despite negative impacts of heat extremes.

2. Methodology/project summary  
This project uses Earth System Model output to investigate the relationship between changes in median and extreme temperatures following emissions cessation.

3. Results  
Applying this method to the ACCESS-ESM1.5 1000 year net-zero climate model, we have found:  
a. Median and hot extreme temperatures decrease in intensity over Northern Hemisphere land regions and increase in intensity over the Southern Ocean over the post-net-zero period, after increasing globally over the pre-net-zero period.  
b. Changes in heat extremes deviate most strongly from changes in the median at high latitudes, and follow changes in the median more closely at lower latitudes.  
c. This deviation at high latitudes is linked to sea ice melt and freeze.

We aim to repeat this analysis using ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 Fast Track experiments to determine how the relationship between median and extreme temperatures evolves, and identify underlying physical mechanisms. In particular, we aim to compare a range of net-zero and overshoot pathways for a given global warming level. This aligns with the workshop goal to ‘contribute to publications and Fast Track analysis with new emissions-driven scenarios including net-zero and overshoots’.

1. Audience  
Climate scientists interested in net-zero modelling and heat extremes.

2. Keywords  
Net-zero, heat extremes, median temperature change, ACCESS-ESM-1.5