# Parallel Session 1: Peter Dobrohotoff: Exploring differing southern Australian rainfall projections in ACCESS-ESM1.5 and CM2 **URL:** \ **Category:** ACCESS Workshop Day 1\ **Created:** [25 August 2025 11:52 UTC](https://forum.access-hive.org.au/t/parallel-session-1-peter-dobrohotoff-exploring-differing-southern-australian-rainfall-projections-in-access-esm1-5-and-cm2/5080 "2025-08-25T11:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![lachlanswhyborn](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex020/user_avatar/forum.access-hive.org.au/lachlanswhyborn/32/1837_2.png) [@lachlanswhyborn](https://forum.access-hive.org.au/u/lachlanswhyborn)\ **Post date:** [25 August 2025 11:52 UTC](https://forum.access-hive.org.au/t/parallel-session-1-peter-dobrohotoff-exploring-differing-southern-australian-rainfall-projections-in-access-esm1-5-and-cm2/5080/1 "2025-08-25T11:52:38Z")
**Exploring differing southern Australian rainfall projections in ACCESS-ESM1.5 and CM2** Peter Dobrohotoff Two ACCESS models, ACCESS-ESM1.5 (ESM1.5) and ACCESS-CM2 (CM2), were submitted to CMIP6. While the models are in many ways similar, high-emissions, concentration-driven experiments in ESM1.5 generally produce drier rainfall anomalies over Australia than does CM2, and ESM1.5 is one of the driest models in a multi-model intercomparison. Here we explore this difference over southern Australia and find that while both models exhibit a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode in a warming climate, shifting storm tracks further south of the continent, the impact of the thermodynamics appears to differ between the two: we show significantly higher soil drying in ESM1.5, which may be involved in a land-atmosphere feedback that reduces evapotranspiration, providing less humidity locally for precipitation. Peter Dobrohotoff (CSIRO), Harun Rashid (CSIRO), Siobhan O’Farrell (CSIRO), Rachel Law (CSIRO), Ian Harman (CSIRO), Tilo Ziehn (CSIRO) Keywords: regional climate change, rainfall trends, CMIP6, moisture transport, dynamics, thermodynamics Audience: model development, climate impacts, atmospheric dynamics, land-atmosphere thermodynamics Please use this thread for discussion about this talk.