# RiskMIP concept proposal - Jeremy Fyke

**URL:** <https://forum.access-hive.org.au/t/riskmip-concept-proposal-jeremy-fyke/7041>\
**Category:** Earth System\
**Tags:** model-evaluation, cmip7, earth-system, access-esm16\
**Created:** [29 September 2026 02:14 UTC](https://forum.access-hive.org.au/t/riskmip-concept-proposal-jeremy-fyke/7041 "2026-09-29T02:14:17Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![dkhutch](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex020/user_avatar/forum.access-hive.org.au/dkhutch/32/510_2.png) [@dkhutch](https://forum.access-hive.org.au/u/dkhutch)\
**Post date:** [29 September 2026 02:14 UTC](https://forum.access-hive.org.au/t/riskmip-concept-proposal-jeremy-fyke/7041/1 "2026-09-29T02:14:17Z")

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Dear ESM community,  
Thanks a lot to Jeremy Fyke and David Huard from the CCCma for joining us today. Jeremy was keen to send around the RiskMIP concept proposal for community feedback. It is here:  
[RiskMIP-concept-proposal.pdf](https://forum.access-hive.org.au/uploads/short-url/dd3XceL7c0jN7PmVkYeSwPFGz58.pdf) (2.1 MB)

The two key references mentioned in Jeremy’s presentation were:  
Fyke et al (2026), **An Earth System Model Ensemble Forced With Probabilistic Emissions: Demonstration and Prospects for Climate Risk Assessment** doi: [10.1029/2025EF007289](https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007289)

Huard et al (2026): **Delivering probabilistic climate hazards assessments** doi: [10.1088/2515-7620/ae3a4d](https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae3a4d)

The Fyke et al (2026) represents the “a priori” approach, while Huard et al (2026) represents the “a posteriori” approach, mentioned in the talk.

They would really like to know if there is interest in participating in a RiskMIP community MIP, and reasons why / why not. Please let me know if you are interested in this concept, and/or send feedback to [Jeremy Fyke](mailto:jeremy.fyke@ec.gc.ca).

Tagging people (from memory) who were present at the meeting / asked questions. @jemmajeffree @wghuneke @nicolamaher @tiloz @JulieA @Dietmar_Dommenget @ongqingyee @spencerwong but let me know if I forgot anyone.

UPDATE: Jeremy’s slides are also attached here:  
[RiskMIP ACCESS talk.pptx](https://forum.access-hive.org.au/uploads/short-url/OANksoG7vjHGy8Ez7i9Sfbi4BB.pptx) (5.6 MB)
