Examining heatwave evolution in a net-zero world using a range of heatwave diagnostics
Greta Paget
Authors: Greta Paget (UNSW School of Mathematics and Statistics, ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather), AProf. Jan Zika (UNSW School of Mathematics and Statistics), Prof. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick (ANU Fenner School of Environment and Society, ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather), Prof. Lisa Alexander (UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather)
Introduction and scientific context:
The Paris agreement set out a global target to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. However, we lack a complete understanding of how climate impacts might evolve after net-zero emissions are reached.
Methodology/project summary:
Recent research has modelled climate stabilisation in the ACCESS-ESM-1.5 model over one thousand years post net-zero, and examined changes in heatwave frequency, intensity and duration using a single heatwave diagnostic.
Building from this work, we aim to apply a range of diagnostics for heatwaves and heat extremes to the ACCESS-ESM-1.5 one thousand year model. The results will allow us to determine which trends in heatwave frequency, intensity and duration are consistent across diagnostics in order to draw conclusions about heatwaves and their spatial variation. Following this, we aim to determine the underlying physical mechanisms which drive heatwaves in regions most affected by heatwaves in a net-zero world.
Results:
The key result of interest to the wider community would be which regions are likely to be the most severely impacted by heatwaves in a net-zero stabilised world.
Audience:
Anyone working on simulations in a net-zero world, heatwaves, or the ACCESS-ESM-1.5 model.
Keywords:
Net-zero, heatwaves, ACCESS-ESM-1.5.
Please use this thread for discussion about this talk.