ESM working group: Meeting notes 2024

Earth System Working Group
, ,
25

Date: 6/6/2024

Participants: 18

Chair: @tiloz

Agenda:

1. Admin

  • Speakers: @HIMADRI_SAINI has volunteered to talk on the Fourth of July but we have no speaker for the next meeting (20th June).

@nicolamaher has volunteered to talk at the next meeting.

Please consider presenting, even work in progress that you’d like some feedback. Message co-chairs or @Aidan.

Good to have feedback and visibility on what people are working on.

If you have any suggestions for ideas to talk about please do add them to the topic.

Same format as last year. Training day, 2 days of workshop, and ESM half day meeting.

@dkhutch will contact @wghuneke and get feedback from last year. Need someone to lead the working group day. This year will have combined registration for workshop and ESM WG day. Will open June 27th. So need to be organised and have something ready by then. Potential themes: CMIP7, regional modelling, paleo and ice-sheets. Want to have invited speakers lined up in time for registration. CMIP7 will likely be around Australian contribution.

@tiloz doesn’t need a lot of work, just meeting enough. @dkhutch just need to get organised for registration deadline.

@aidan Training opportunities will be part of the registration process to gauge interest and help plan training delivered.

  • Next SAC Meeting is June 20th (same day as next WG Meeting). Are there any items the Working Group would like taken to SAC?

2. Shared experiments/ACCESS-NRI resources

  • ESM project lg87 has used 1.74MSU out of 2.3MSU allocation. We have asked, and received, two additional allocations of compute quota (total 1.1MSU extra), and an additional top-up of approx 300KSU.
  • 35TB our of 100TB used of quota on /g/data/

Remember this is not intended for long-term storage, and there should always been a plan to either delete the data or move it o a long term location

3. Science talk

Christine Chung (@ctychung) (Bureau): “Projections of ENSO, IOD, and SAM change in CMIP6 models”

  • Summary of work done as part of a NESP project “Dry, Wet, Hot and Dry”, focussing on extreme wet and dry conditions.
  • Evaluating teleconnections of ENSO, IOD, SAM as main drivers of Australian seasonal rainfall variability and how they’re projected to change. Any model consensus? Is there a visible forced signal?
  • Compared CMIP5 and CMIP6. Improvement in ENSO, IOD teleconnections. Models capture asymmetry in EN?LN response and CP/EP. Simulation of SAM has improved, but teleconnection with Aus rainfall has got worse. There is a lot of internal spread among models and ensemble members. Large source of uncertainty.
  • ENSO N34 DJF. Changes in distribution, amplitude and frequency. Increase in variability and frequency.
  • El Nino internal variability twice that of La Nina. Little evidence of a forced response beyond internal variability in La Nina. Somewhat more for La Nina.
  • IOD: no clear trend in variability, or frequency, but some reduction in amplitude. Some more evidence of forced response.
  • SAM: significant shift to stronger events, but weaker in springtime. Most models show an increase in variability. Strong evidence of a forced response.
  • No consensus/consistent story.
  • Looked into concurrent events. No significant change obvious.
  • Looked into consecutive ENSO/IOD events. No forced signal obvious.

4. What’s going on?

@nicolamaher will talk at the next meeting.

@dkhutch started a forum topic to discuss what the next ESM1.5 configurations after initial ESM1.5 release.

@RachelLaw: thanks to everyone giving their feedback on the ESM1.6 scope topic.

@tiloz please contribute feedback to both topics on the forum. Plan is to complete ESM1.6 model development by the end of the year.

This is a wiki post , if you want to update any of the details in these meeting notes, or to add your own recollection of what was discussed then edit me rather than replying.