Feedback on COSIMA's draft 10 year science priorities for ACCESS Roadmap

Hi COSIMA,

The ACCESS-NRI Scientific Advisory Committee is developing an ACCESS Roadmap for the next 10 years. To help guide recommendations on which model development and support should be prioritised, we are starting by thinking about the most important science we want ACCESS to enable over the next decade.

@pearseb and I have drafted the following priorities as a starting point:

We would love your feedback / input on this to take to the Scientific Advisory Committee. We are just as interested in what should be a lower priority as what should be a high priority. The danger of listing everything we could possibly want is that the most important capabilities may end up being less well supported.

We also encourage you to think beyond the current COSIMA community. Are there emerging science priorities, or communities not yet well supported by ACCESS-NRI, that we should be considering?

In particular, we would love your thoughts on:

  1. Do the proposed science priorities capture the main science COSIMA should be enabling in 2036?
  2. What, if anything, is missing or should be changed in the science priorities?
  3. Are the proposed required model capabilities the right capabilities to enable these priorities? What is missing or unnecessary?
  4. Is there anything listed as ‘nice to have’ that you think should be essential, or vice versa?

Feel free to start discussion below, or you can provide feedback privately through this survey link. Please provide feedback by Friday 28th August.

Thanks!
Adele

Some comments:

  1. Are the changes in surface waves such high priority (4th item)? I would think it’s not that much of a priority. The fact that they don’t seem to appear in the required model capabilities but in the “nice-to-have” ones seems to agree with that?

  2. Do we want to mention something in the capabilities in the spirit of: ability to utilise modern HPC hardware (like GPUs)?

Thanks @adele-morrison , @pearseb . Looks like a great high-level summary.

It is good to see the mention of improved parameterizations and tuning. This is where I see a significant gap in the Australian community, at least outside of the Antarctic margin. I would love to see more of an emphasis on taking the latest and greatest parameterizations, implementing them, and doing the detailed and difficult work of verification and tuning. It might not lead to many papers, but that’s the work that will actually result in a better representation of ocean processes around Australia and in the mid-latitudes and tropics, and thus better climate projections and better science.

Thanks @adele-morrison and @pearseb for pulling this together.

10 years is a long time horizon, so I’m wondering if we should look further beyond current capabilities?

Here are some possibilities that I think would be technically feasible, though probably only a subset would be realistic within resource constraints:

  • The NUOPC coupler is very flexible and could be leveraged more than we currently do. For example:
    • “Plug and Play” modelling: Consider all ACCESS models (e.g. ACCESS-OM3) as a special case of a universal “ACCESS-everything” model (ACCESS-ESM3+waves+ice sheets), for which any active component can be replaced by a prescribed data model (e.g. JRA55-do instead of UM) or nothing (e.g. waves or BGC turned off). We already do this to some extent (using CDEPS DATM and DROF in OM3 in place of UM in CM3), but this could be extended to allow DOCN instead of MOM6, DICE instead of CICE, DWAV instead of WW3, etc. This approach would permit stepwise construction/deconstruction of a full ESM, for which all other models (e.g. ACCESS-OM3) are considered subsets. This approach would allow
      • exploration of the impacts of feedbacks between model components, including more/fewer/different components than we currently have in OM3 and CM3
      • stripped-down partly-coupled models (e.g. active WW3-CICE with DOCN data ocean) to explore particular feedbacks in isolation, and also more efficiently debug and tune components
    • user-friendly ways to use the ability of CDEPS and the CMEPS mediator to combine and modify data streams and coupled fields, to facilitate perturbation experiments and explorations of the impact of modified feedbacks between any components, e.g.
      • forcing with a blend of JRA55-do and a perturbation (like what we can do in OM2)
      • modifying coupling fields between any components, e.g. switch between two-way and unidirectional coupling, or have coupling which is amplified, attenuated, spatially or temporally filtered, or perturbed in some other way, e.g. blended with climatology
    • separate CICE instances for NH and SH in global ACCESS-OM3 to permit independent parameters in the two hemispheres
    • NUOPC cap for Oceananigans, so we can optionally use it in OM3 in place of MOM6
  • exchange grids for more accurate coupling between components of different resolution (e.g. 8km OM3 with coarser WW3)
  • explicit icebergs, with grounding and fast sea ice
  • ocean coupling to dynamic ice sheet
  • wetting/drying in MOM for shoreline change, e.g. in regional models or sea level rise
  • other forcing datasets (e.g. CFORCE)
  • support other BGC models (or even ecosystem models) besides WOMBAT variants
  • offline BGC for rapid spinup and cheap experiments
  • Anderson acceleration
  • atmospheric boundary layer model as halfway point between prescribed forcing and coupling to a full model (UM)
  • data assimilation? (or is ACCESS-NRI not allowed to work on that?)
  • AI / ML applications?

Obviously this is an overly long list, but maybe some well-considered subset of these would have a worthwhile payoff in opening up new areas of research. It would need to be driven by scientific priorities.

Thanks for putting this together and providing the opportunity for us to chip in.

As mentioned in today’s COSIMA meeting, I think there is value in mentioning coupling to the atmosphere, even though this list is obviously focusing on the ocean/sea ice. I suggest to add a third science priority highlighting the need to understand the ocean’s role in the coupled climate system, cross-cutting with the ESM WG. Regions of priority should be (i) Australia and (ii) pan-Antarctic.

Agreed @rmholmes! I think we need to argue for funding specifically for people in the community to work on improved parameterisations/tuning. At least in the oceans space at ACCESS-NRI, they are currently not funding scientists, only software engineers, who I don’t think can be expected to do this tuning work. It would be cool to e.g. have a framework where a handful of people (including ECRs) are paid one day a week to work together on improving biases in ACCESS-OM3.

Firstly, a heads up that we will spend our weekly COSIMA meeting this Thursday solely focused on discussing COSIMA’s science and model development priorities for the next 10 years. Please come along and have input!

Secondly, it would be great to have some more waves and sea ice discussion on this thread, so as a community we understand what the priorities are in this space and what is involved. For many of us this is somewhat outside our areas of expertise, so some additional context would be really helpful. (Thanks to those who did fill out the survey on this!). For example (apologies for my ignorance!!): what science questions would coupling waves to the ocean allow us to answer? I understand that waves coupled to sea ice is important, but in our priorities above we currently just have “Understand changes in surface waves”, which perhaps doesn’t require coupling to the ocean. @lgbennetts @willrhobbs @sofarrell @adfraser

Also on waves, it seems like the Australian near-shore community are keen on the CCHaPS model. How would development that ACCESS-NRI does on waves interact with the CCHaPS effort? Can we avoid duplication? Would waves development in ACCESS-OM3 help near-shore people also? @AndyHoggANU

Thirdly, @PSpence raised last week that maybe we want support for idealised modelling via Oceananigans, since lots of people in the community are now using this. Thoughts on whether that’s a good idea, and what support would be useful?

Sorry for the late reply; it’s been a busy few weeks! Unfortunately I won’t be able to make the 3rd September COSIMA meeting, but this is my view from a polar perspective; it’s somewhat sea ice focussed but not by any means entirely. I’ve tried to think about what we would need from COSIMA so that we have a fully-coupled (atmos, ocean BGC, ecosystem and ice sheet) Antarctic system model in the next 10 years.

  • waves, including wave-ice interaction. @navidcy for the Antarctic community this is foundational for some really important stuff: it will likely solve some of the bias in the “melt” part of the seasonal cycle (models melt slow and late, then race to catch up); the effect of sea ice on BGC; the effect of sea ice on ice shelves through swell; and changes to the timing of fast ice breakout (aka will emperor penguins go extinct in the next 20 years..?)
  • CICE-WOMBAT BGC coupling. Again, really important for assessing the BGC impacts of sea ice change, and especially if we want to be able to couple use ACCESS-OM to drive an Southern Ocean ecosystem model (which I would anticipate as a clear goal for any post-ACEAS/AAPP program)
  • @aekiss agree fully on the need some kind of atmosphere boundary layer, either deterministic or M/L based. The uber-constraint of surface air temperature on sea ice is a big issue for process-based studies, especially perturbed runs, and people are struggling with it (e.g. @Wilton_Aguiar @adele-morrison @ariaan @saanvi )

I would third @aekiss and @willrhobbs on the usefulness of simplified atmospheric coupling, such as an atmospheric boundary layer. Just linking in this post which discusses some of them.

I think including a simple boundary layer atm is a great idea for cosima. I get frustrated with how stuck our models are to jra66. I also think including more complex models like the UM is more in the ESM working group space. The UM is a bit of a monster.

I’m wondering whether we explicitly want to list ‘Changes in surface waves’ as one of the scientific priorities, as we currently have? From the discussions I’ve been having with COSIMA people, it seems that ‘Changes in Antarctic sea ice’ are perhaps really the key priority, and we just need to know about/simulate waves in order to project sea ice better. Keen to hear from those out there who will actually be running WW3 for wave projections. I guess perhaps we want this for the Future Oceans CoE?

This also feeds into my question above about whether we want WW3-MOM6 coupling to e.g. look at impacts of those waves on the ocean. Or are we primarily interested in:

  • the impact of waves of sea ice and so only need WW3-CICE6 coupling?
  • the impact of waves on near-shore sea level, so just need them as a boundary condition to near-shore models?

Thanks Adele, Pearse, Andrew, Will and others—I think this is a really great discussion.

For what it is worth, I wanted to strongly support Andrew’s point about enabling separate CICE instances, or at least hemisphere-specific CICE parameter control, for global ACCESS-OM3. From a Southern Hemisphere sea-ice perspective, I think this is more than a convenience issue. Arctic and Antarctic sea ice have different dynamical regimes, different snow/thermodynamic regimes, different coastal geometry, and different fast-ice formation mechanisms. A single global sea-ice parameter set is therefore a fairly blunt instrument if we are trying to improve both hemispheres simultaneously.

A concrete example is fast ice. The standard CICE seabed or basal-stress approach is physically useful where grounded pressure ridges interact with shallow bathymetry, but that is a very rare (if at all occurrence) in Antarctica. Around Antarctica, fast ice is often maintained by grounded icebergs, ice shelves, and coastline geometry (similar to the Arctic), however, this all occurs in water depths where a shallow-water grounding scheme is not the right first-order mechanism. In my own work with Antarctic CICE configurations, simply having seabed stress enabled is not necessarily benign at 1/4-degree: it can introduce awkward behaviour in a small number of grid cells, depending on the bathymetry/mask representation. This may or may not remain an issue at 1/10-degree, but I do not think we should assume that without testing.

For that reason, I think a 10-year plan should include the capability to tune, perturb, and evaluate CICE independently in each hemisphere. Separate CICE instances would be a clean way to do this, particularly if it also helps isolate NH and SH choices around rheology, tensile strength, landfast-ice parameterisations, seabed stress, floe-size/wave-ice interactions, and snow/thermodynamic parameters. If separate instances are technically too large a step, then a useful minimum would be a hemisphere-aware CICE configuration pathway, where selected namelist parameters and diagnostics can be controlled independently north and south of the equator.

This also connects to the broader question of what COSIMA wants ACCESS-OM3 to support. As a seperate thought than the one just give. Climate-scale projection is obviously central, but I think we might also name deterministic and ensemble sea-ice modelling as explicit scientific capabilities. Many sea-ice questions are not only about producing one best long climate run; they require controlled perturbation experiments, parameter sensitivity studies, ensemble attribution, process isolation, and forecast-like or event-scale experiments. This is particularly true for Antarctic sea ice, fast ice, wave-ice interaction, polynya/ice production processes, and the coupling pathways to BGC, ecosystems and ice shelves.

So my suggested addition would be something like:

  • support hemisphere-specific sea-ice model configuration and tuning in global ACCESS-OM3, including the option of separate NH and SH CICE instances;

  • prioritise Antarctic sea-ice process fidelity, with waves treated as a key enabling process rather than necessarily as the headline science question;

  • include deterministic and ensemble ocean-sea-ice modelling capability alongside climate-scale simulation, so that ACCESS-OM3 can support process attribution, uncertainty quantification, perturbation experiments and forecast-like sea-ice science.

I think this would sit naturally alongside the existing priorities around Antarctic sea ice, ice shelves, waves, improved parameterisations/tuning, and simplified atmospheric coupling.

… thanks for listening to my Tuesday night thoughts …

Hi @adele-morrison , thanks for the prompt on waves and ice and coupled models. I spent a bit of time thinking about this over the last day, and will definitely tune in tomorrow for the COSIMA meeting! Just getting some thoughts down here too:

  • You’re probably right in that “Understand changes in surface waves” doesn’t require coupling, if the question is about understanding waves in the non-ice-covered ocean. Could just run WW3. As far as I understand, the influence of sea ice on waves in the SO is not so large, other than “presence/absence” of sea ice which is already captured well.
    • “Understand changes in surface waves” within sea ice definitely requires coupling - at least with CICE and probably with CICE+MOM. The problem with CICE-WW3 coupling (without MOM) is (please correct me @NoahDay) the ice edge is often in the wrong place, and Noah has showed some pretty big differences in waves-in-ice between “CICE+waves” vs “OM3+waves”.
  • In general there are a few things that really would benefit from full coupling (waves + ice + ocean). Some of these we’re in a position to model competently now (or very soon), and some of these require more development. Breaking these down, here are the "now"s:
    • As Will pointed out and Noah/Ezhil have got early results showing, enabling the new-ish “joint floe size-thickness distribution” together with wave coupling will allow us to better represent lateral melt in the springtime: waves → fracturing → larger ice perimeter → more lateral melt → changes to seasonality. Noah has snowed these are pretty substantial, although the model needs some more tuning.
    • To some degree, the increase in lateral melt will result in higher material and heat fluxes form the ocean to the atmosphere in spring, in line with the above. There is not yet a specific “wave-enhancement of fluxes” in CICE (e.g., from jostling), but having an accelerated spring melt will inherently increase fluxes at this time of year.
    • We are getting more certain that waves play a big role in the seasonality of fast ice. Without waves we (@dpath2o) sees fast ice persisting a little too long into November. @andrew.einhorn showed that waves definitely play a big role in a lot of fast ice breakup in Sept-Oct and presumably into Nov-Dec too. So I think fast ice into OM3 (without waves – this is Kaihong’s project to start with) will give a big improvement in polynya shape and sea ice production throughout the winter, but waves will be required (coupled to CICE+MOM) for “full-on most realistic” fast ice simulation.
  • And for the “not yet”:
    • Rob Massom’s new work points to newly-recognised feedbacks in the marginal ice zone: TC - The influence of ocean waves on Antarctic sea-ice albedo and seasonal melting, and potential coupled physical and biological feedbacks . These involve wave overwash, liquid getting onto the floes in the MIZ, and changes in albedo which are definitely large enough to notably modify shortwave absorption (and more melt). Some of these feedbacks are physical only but some also involve biology (floe greening) – anyway as far as I understand, none of these are yet in CICE.
    • We don’t yet have wave radiated stress in CICE - apparently wave radiated stress (imparting of momemtum from waves into the ice, thus pushing floes (generally poleward)) is sometimes as large as the wind stress (there is a Thomson paper that quantifies this, from memory. @lgbennetts will know it) but this can’t yet be modelled. It could be a large factor in the recent crash in the Bellingshausen sea, for example. But we don’t have line-of-sight in getting this to CICE yet.

I tried to list the above objectively without getting into “pet rock” territory, but you can judge that! There may be other things I’m missing too. We have a review paper on the MIZ just recently submitted to “reviews of geophysics” which we could pass on too, I’m sure the authors wouldn’t mind.

Thanks @adfraser, very nice summary!

MOM–CICE coupling is crucial to study the broader importance of waves on the Southern Ocean (e.g., the impacts of this lateral melt mechanism). The advantages of ocean–wave coupling are potentially less clear, but from our development of a three-way coupled MOM–CICE–WW3 configuration we have found large sensitivities in these associated parameters. We have now settled on a parameter set that is grounded in literature from which further tuning can be conducted. Also, it might be worth highlighting that there are on-going efforts for CESM, E3SM, and NorESM to further investigate wave-driven mixing, including the impacts in polar oceans.

Regarding currently un-resolved (Rob’s paper, radiation stress, MIZ-specific rheology) and/or debated wave-ice modelled processes (wave attenuation, floe fracturing, floe damage/fracture/healing). As raised by @aekiss, I think there would be value in a WW3-CICE with DOCN configuration, especially for a hemispheric or pan-Antarctic configuration. A lot of these processes vary on small temporal+spatial scales (e.g. driven by storms), which may make them computational infeasible globally given the cost of WW3. That being said, configuring an appropriate data ocean (DOCN) isn’t trivial (I’m not sure if NUOPC currently supports this), but disconnecting the ocean feedbacks may facilitate faster model development and targeted studies of these impacts. (NB: I was impressed with the Antarctic sea ice extents @dpath2o showed last week with his standalone CICE model!)

Thanks for all the interesting discussion! It’s sounding like the expense of WW3 could be a challenge for running it in OM3 at 25 km, let alone 8 km. @aekiss mentioned exchange grids, and @lgbennetts mentioned downscaling from 100 km WW3 to higher res CICE6/MOM6. I’d love to be educated more on these possible solutions and how much work would be involved. It seems like a shame if the work being done on wave - sea ice interactions is not able to feed through to improvements in the global 8 km config.

Thanks for the great discussion this morning COSIMA! Here is doc we were discussing (still rather in draft form!):
COSIMA_WG_priorities.pdf (327.1 KB)

And here is the survey link for any extra feedback you may have. Please submit this by Monday at the latest, because Pearse and I need to finalise this for the wider Scientific Advisory Committee discussion next week.