Regional climate change under overshoot and net-zero emissions
Liam J cassidy
1. As record-high carbon dioxide emissions persist, it is becoming increasingly likely that Earth will surpass global warming targets established by the Paris Agreement. If continued global mean temperature increases by another ~0.5°C or more, humanity will need to reach a state of net-negative carbon dioxide emissions to eventually satisfy Paris Agreement global warming goals.
2. We explore projections of regional climate using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) that simulate global warming overshoot followed by periods of net-negative and net-zero carbon dioxide emissions. We use ACCESS-ESM1.5 model outputs and compare these with outputs from other Earth System Models (ESMs).
3.During the strongly forced warming and cooling periods of overshoot, ESMs tend to agree on sign of regional climate changes in most regions. However, under the quasi-stable net-zero period after overshoot, models show large differences in regional climate that might be best explained by various large-scale temperature and pressure gradients. We also find that internal variability within the large multi-member suite of ACCESS-ESM1.5 simulations can outweigh uncertainties across different ESMs, especially during the net-zero emissions period.
4. ACCESS-ESM1.5 model developers, university researcher groups, and those interested in climate projections under net-negative and net-zero emissions.
5. Overshoot, net-negative, net-zero, Paris Agreement.
Please use this thread for discussion about this talk.