On the origins of noise (when forecasting ENSO)
Jemma Jeffree
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a large-scale climate pattern with global impacts. However, small-scale perturbations of magnitude 0.0001 °C lead to entirely distinct modelled ENSO states within 2-3 years, limiting the predictability of ENSO. The mechanisms by which these small perturbations grow are not well understood.
We explore which parts of a the climate system amplify small deviations in the climate state, by comparing free-running coupled model simulations with those that share either: a prescribed atmosphere, or a prescribed ocean, or prescribed initial conditions.
Preliminary results suggest that atmospheric model runs with prescribed ocean conditions vary more than ocean model runs with prescribed atmospheric conditions. However, the coupled interactions between ocean and atmospheric models are integral to the speed with which small deviations can grow and limit ENSO predictability.
This talk is pitched to be accessible to any climate researcher, and may be of particular interest to those who research ENSO, other internal variability, seasonal predictions, or interaction between small and large scale processes.
ENSO, internal variability, OMIP, AMIP, ACCESS-ESM1-5, coupled model,
Please use this thread for discussion about this talk.