Experiment title: Understanding the role of atmosphere in the development and predictability of the triple La Nina of 2020-2022
Tool: ACCESS-S2 coupled forecast system
There have been studies proposing that the Australian Black Summer bushfire smoke drove the development of the 2020 La Nina and preliminary reports that the Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption contributed to the development of the 2022 La Nina.
How model design will address scientific justification:
Forecast sensitivity experiments using the ACCESS-S2 seasonal forecast system with observed ocean initial conditions but with random atmospheric initial conditions will shed some light on the role of the atmosphere that included the effects of Australian bushfire smoke and the Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption in the development of the triple La Nina and its predictability.
Initial conditions: observed ocean initial conditions of 2020-2022 + observed atmospheric initial conditions of other random years excluding 2020-2022
Run plan: X members of 5 month forecast integration for 36 months initialised on the 1st of each month from 2020-2022
Total KSUs required for 1 member: ~250 KSU
Total storage required for 1 member: 1.4TB
This experiment has been proposed to be a joint project with the Forecast and prediction working group. Thus, any computing/storage resources will be shared between the two working groups.