Sensitivity experiments using ACCESS-ESM1-5 of forestation on croplands. They test the response of ACCESS-ESM1-5 to increases in forest plant functional types (PFTs) at the expense of croplands. If we can crop crops there we can plausibly grow trees. Under future sustainable development, natural lands should be preserved and much of the potential forestation will compete with agricultural lands. While many of these experiments are not realistic, they provide useful information on the behavior of ACCESS-ESM1-5’s land-use change.
- ACCESS’ response to land-use change as a whole in the global context is not well described. These experiments will demonstrate the response of the model in terms of the climate and the carbon cycle.
- There aren’t many experiments of forestation for Australia. The LUMIP forestation experiment does not have any future changes in forest cover for Australia. Forestation experiments are needed to answer question surrounding the CO2 removal potential of forests. and the impact on the climate. Would the CO2 removal be offset by local effects of darker trees? Furthermore, how would newly planted forests perform under different climate warming states?
These experiments are based on the global warming level experiments. In these baseline global warming experiments ACCESS-ESM1-5 is run in emissions-driven mode for ssp585, and branched at future points in time every 5 years until 2060. At each branching point the emissions are set to 0 and the climate is allowed to stabilize.
The forestation experiments branch from the global warming level experiments 400 years after the branching point, since the climate has approximately stabilized enough for doing short 100-year experiments. Forestation occurs instantly at the start of the simulation. Three tree PFTs are expanded (evergreen needleleaf, evergreen broadleaf and deciduous broadleaf) at the expense of of crops. If tree PFTs exist at a grid-cell, the proportions of existing tree PFTs are preserved in the forestation. If there are no existing tree PFTs, then the proportions are preserved using the nearest forested grid-cell.
These simulations are based on the 2030 global warming level (approximately a present-day climate) and forestation occurs using only one tree PFT.
The crop cover increases slightly over the period 2030–2060 in ssp585, therefore forested area increases for later branching points. This simulation branched at 2060 but uses the 2030 land cover map for forestation. This allows us to differentiate forestation area from the increase in CO2 over the period 2030–2060.
These simulations are based on the 2030 branching point and offer a slightly more realistic forestation scenario. Forestation occurs in the same manner as the standard forestation experiments but only on 10% or 50% of crop lands, everywhere.
The effects of increasing CO2 from land use change are separated from the biogeophisical effects of land use change using a 2030 no land-use change experiment in concentration-driven mode with the concentrations from the 2030 forestation experiment. This would represent the CO2-only effects of land-use change and the difference with the forestation scenario will reveal the biogeophysical effects of the land-use change.
|Exp name||Run length||Branches from||Forestation on||Compared to|
|esm-esm-piNoCrops||100 years||piControl||all crops||esm-piControl|
|Esm-esm-piNoCrops-02||50 years||piControl||all crops||esm-piControl|
|GWL-NoCrops-B2030||200 years||PI-GWL-t6||all crops||PI-GWL-t6|
|GWL-NoCrops-B2030-02||176 years||PI-GWL-t6||all crops||PI-GWL-t6|
|GWL-NoCrops-B2035||100 years||PI-GWL-B2035||all crops||PI-GWL-B2035|
|GWL-NoCrops-B2040||100 years||PI-GWL-B2040||all crops||PI-GWL-B2040|
|GWL-NoCrops-B2045||100 years||PI-GWL-B2045||all crops||PI-GWL-B2045|
|GWL-NoCrops-B2050||100 years||PI-GWL-B2050||all crops||PI-GWL-B2050|
|GWL-NoCrops-B2055||100 years||PI-GWL-B2055||all crops||PI-GWL-B2055|
|GWL-NoCrops-B2060||100 years||Pi-GWL-B2060||all crops||Pi-GWL-B2060|
|GWL-NoCr-B2060-02||100 years||Pi-GWL-B2060||all crops||Pi-GWL-B2060|
|GWL-EqFor-B2060||100 years||Pi-GWL-B2060||Only GWL-NoCrops-B2030 crops||Pi-GWL-B2060|
|GWL-EGNL-B2030||100 years||PI-GWL-t6||all crops||PI-GWL-t6|
|GWL-EGBL-B2030||100 years||PI-GWL-t6||all crops||PI-GWL-t6|
|GWL-DCBL-B2030||100 years||PI-GWL-t6||all crops||PI-GWL-t6|
|GWL-50pc-B2030||100 years||PI-GWL-t6||50% of croplands||PI-GWL-t6|
|GWL-10pc-B2030||100 years||PI-GWL-t6||10% of croplands||PI-GWL-t6|
|GWL-CO2only-B2030||100 years||PI-GWL-t6||all crops||GWL-NoCrops-B2030|
People: Tammas Loughran
Configuration: [to do. ksh scripts. I will share these later when I have made a repository of them.]
Initial conditions: [to do]
Resources per year
Service Units: 995.20
NCPUs Requested: 384 NCPUs Used: 384
CPU Time Used: 493:16:10
Memory Requested: 288.0GB Memory Used: 183.22GB
Walltime requested: 02:30:00 Walltime Used: 01:17:45
JobFS requested: 800.0MB JobFS used: 8.16MB
Based on Global Warming Experiments:
King, A. D. et al. Studying climate stabilization at Paris Agreement levels. Nature Climate Change 11, 1006–1016 (2021).