ESM working group: Meeting notes 2024

Earth System Working Group
, ,
30

Date: 29/8/2024

Participants: 16

Chair: @eunpalim

Admin

  • @YanxuanD is using the bulk of the resources and requested more time.
  • @JulieA couldn’t attend but mentioned she has experiments pending a new hire.
  • Other projects have underutilized resources if people think they could use them.
  • Encouragement for proposals for shared experiments.
  • No working group meeting on September 12th due to the Access NRI Workshop.
  • Next meeting on September 26th, looking for a speaker.

Access Community Workshop

  • Scheduled for next week with 51 attendees (48-49 in person).
  • 8 speakers lined up.
  • Discussion on the possibility of having ad-hoc discussions after lunch due to high attendance.

ACCESS-ESM 1.5 Release

  • ACCESS-NRI supported release of ACCESS-ESM1.5

https://forum.access-hive.org.au/t/access-esm1-5-release-information/2352/3

  • @spencerwong will discuss it further during the workshop.
  • Thanks to @tiloz and CSIRO for developing the model.
  • Support for the model will be provided through the forum.

Speaker

  • Dr. Surendra Rauniyar (@sprbom) from the Bureau of Meteorology presented on the “Tinderbox Drought” in Southeast Australia and its future likelihood using climate models.

Tinderbox Drought Research:

  • Focus on the cool season (April to September).
  • Key questions addressed:
    • Severity of rainfall deficit relative to historical context and model variability.
    • Roles of anthropogenic forcings and internal variability.
    • Future likelihood of extremely dry periods.
    • Impact of greenhouse gas reduction on future drought likelihood.
  • Findings:
    • The recent decline in cool season rainfall is highly unusual.
    • According to climate models, the Tinderbox Drought (2017-2019) was dominated largely by internal climate variability, however it would not have been as large without the influence from increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere.
    • Future likelihood of extremely dry periods is higher due to climate change.
    • Models struggle to simulate the extreme dryness observed.
    • High emission scenarios significantly increase the likelihood of future droughts.
    • Even low emission scenarios show increased likelihood compared to pre-industrial levels.

Discussion Points:

  • Importance of soil moisture deficit and land surface coupling in the drought.
  • Potential insights from future CMIP7 runs.
  • Need for further investigation into model variability and forced response.
  • Examination of individual model responses and their dependence on warming.
  • Consideration of underlying climatologies of models before including them in analyses.

Notes were generated automatically by AI from a Zoom transcript.

Additional information