Sensitivity of the ISMIP6-2300-based Antarctic ice sheet projections to model configurations
'Sea-level rise (SLR) projections resulting from land ice contributions are subject to considerable uncertainty (11–40 cm under current emissions pledges; Edwards et al. (2021)) and the Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the greatest source of uncertainty. The largest recent attempt to improve our understanding of ice sheet behavior and its contribution to future SLR is led by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) (Nowicki et al., 2016). It involves multiple ice sheet modeling teams using various models and configurations to project the behavior of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Our contribution to ISMIP6 includes participating in the Antarctic projections for both ISMIP6-2100 (Seroussi et al., 2020) and ISMIP6-2300, utilizing the Elmer/Ice model. The large divergence across different contributing groups with various configurations motivated us to investigate the sensitivity of Antarctic ice sheet projections to model configurations and climate forcing with Elmer/Ice, including mesh resolution, basal melt parameterization, reference surface mass balance, and the prescribed basal sliding. Through this ongoing work, we will unveil our latest findings regarding the influence of ice sheet model configurations on ice mass loss projections in Antarctica and provide constructive suggestions on future ice sheet projections.
Poster_ChenZhaov2.pdf (5.1 MB)
Note: this topic is part of the 2023 ACCESS Community Workshop Poster session