CM: climate services benefit from having the full impact chain in one country, from global models thru to climate services, to resolve any issues of integrity and data transfer and expertise along this chain
HC: excellent argument - this is why Aus and NZ decided they needed their own sovereign capacity for weather forecasting, and this holds just as strongly for climate
CHS: CMIP feeds in to climate and weather research
CM: can’t rely on NH countries to focus on SH processes etc
HC: yes we need to own our patch and work on our region - ENSO, SO, etc etc
AU: and we need our contributions to feed in globally and CMIP is the vehicle for that
HN: events like this keep community together
HC, AK: shared models form a focus to build a community to
CC: yes, nice community with COSIMA, but why not with CMIP
HC, CM: this meeting is build a community effort for CMIP, different from previous CSIRO-led CMIPs
CM: danger of tragedy of the commons: if we opt out of CMIP, will other countries follow? Our contribution is especially important since so few CMIP contributing countries are SH.
HC: CMIP investment is also good for regional politics - being good neighbours in our region
CM: national scientific reputational risk
RT: we are uniquely positioned as a wealthy developed SH country to contribute
AU: water availability/security and security of carbon sinks are both crucial for Aus - we need an ESM
CC: Tilo said that ESM does very badly in global terrestrial C sinks compared to other models - missing important land processes
What are the key science questions? If participate in CMIP, the potential outcomes are:
- Societal relevant climate impacts and risks
- Better water security
- Net zero
- Disaster risk management
- Confidence in the model
- Better prediction of climate variability
- More efficient use of Australia’s resources
AU: climate extremes drive a lot of the sinks - better understanding of these needed
Problems/issues that can be addresses:
- Higher-resolution for downscaling (50km), higher resolution ocean for marine heatwaves
- Water cycle
- Stability of carbon sink in Australia
- Capture of CO2 by the Southern ocean
- Better understanding of climate extremes
- Predictability of climate modes of variability in models
- Better climate sensitivity
- Optimisation of resources for the best way to provide projections (global climate models vs. downscaling vs. ML)
Relevance to Australia and the Australian community:
- See outcomes (above)
Model features/ components / processes that would be required to achieve this:
- Increase the resolution of all components
- Land surface hydrology, vegetation dynamics
- Convection parameterisation Microphysics
- Better planning (optimisation)