Session 3 Breakout 4: what could we get out of CMIP7

This topic contains discussions, questions and thoughts for Session 3 - Breakout room 4 of the CMIP7 Workshop
Time and Date: Tuesday 28th February, 2023 from 2:00 - 3:30 pm

Should we get involved in CMIP7 and what would be the benefits to the Australian research community and society? (Think about why we need an Australian model and cannot/should not rely solely on other models.)

Australian / SH questions and benefits to capability

  • Australian landscape and vegetation is very unique, different from NH (e.g. response to extreme heat) – if we don’t have an Aus model, don’t have a land surface model that represents Aus vegetation (one of the only models with N and P limited veg - relevant to Aus because P limited soils)
  • NH modelling agencies have a stronger focus on Arctic sea ice and NH atm-ocn interactions – can produce unrealistic Antarctic / Southern Ocean features
  • Local tuning for the Southern Ocean make ACCESS output better for coastal downscaling than other GCMs
  • ENSO teleconnections to Australia
  • Trend to variability – understanding ENSO, IOD, SAM

Does Australia feel like we should have sovereign capability in climate modelling? If we don’t, is it something we are happy to rely on other nations? If we don’t have capability, do we risk relying on other countries for climate information (COVID and Australian capability to produce vaccines highlights need to have national capability)

  • Bring Defence, DFAT, BlueLink, Space Agency to the table
  • It would be good to understand what the Govt’s position on this is
  • Australian-led industry can make use of data

Antarctic Treaty – requirement to undertake work going on in the Antarctic space

  • International sensitivity to presence in Antarctica

Opportunity for collaboration, link in to science communities

Link modelling with large scale Australian observational programs (e.g. Cape Grim, IMOS, Tern, Southern Ocean mapping, East Antarctic monitoring program, Space Agency Earth observation system) – connection needs to be there – we can be an impact pathway to these programs - benefits process understanding

potential outcomes problems/issues that can be addressed relevance to Australia and the Australian community model features /components /processes that would be required to achieve this
potential outcomes Diminished returns Reduced uncertainty, improved projections Coupled ice sheet in the climate system
CMIP7 historical will run to ~2023 and scenario starts from there – so forcing differences in the next decade or so Few years away Better estimates of climate sensitivity Southern Ocean cloud physics
Role of ice sheets in climate system – freshwater and heat budgets, sea level rise, Climate sensitivity, biases Better representation of where water is partitioned in the landscape Soil, vegetation representation, evapotranspiration
Improved SH radiation budget, less SO bias, climate sensitivity to improve projections ------ People: Succession planning, training new cohort of climate modellers in Australia Answering how much can the Australian landscape sequester carbon and answer other carbon cycle questions Better ENSO
Hydrology feedback loops, better representation of hydrology itself Software: ACCESS-NRI funding going forward beyond current lifespan Leverage of other countries model components by being involved in CMIP7 Dynamic vegetation model within ESM, marine carbon cycle improvements
Better ENSO Carbon cycle – including Southern Ocean carbon cycle, land carbon cycle response to climate change CABLE doesn’t have the capability to answer certain important science questions re: carbon capture, food security How do/will Antarctic changes affect Australian communities, coasts? Land surface capabilities separate to CMIP are needed to answer some questions
Paleo to ground truth model But it is capable of capturing nature based solutions – e.g. forestation, soil carbon CABLE-POP
Policy relevant, uptakes, decisions in boardrooms, use what comes out of CMIP and ACCESS to achieve things beyond our community Representation of secondary vegetation and plant demographics in CABLE Ocean and sea ice tuning Include carbon cycle
National commitments that we will make under the Paris Agreement Future food security Climate refugees
Capability to model mitigation pathways – to test policy when it’s put up Fill gaps where we have high uncertainties
Coming up with policy around climate intervention
Enhanced national capability in resilience and adaptation
Foreign affairs obligations to Pacific Islands and region
Established national sovereignty
Policy relevant, uptakes, decisions in boardrooms, use what comes out of CMIP and ACCESS to achieve things beyond our community
Better Antarctic / Southern Ocean science
Re-establish world leading SH modelling – integrate COSIMA capabilities in coupled framework
Become world leaders in impact capabilities

Group4.pptx (64.1 KB)