Ulrike Bende-Michl: Towards an Australian Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project (AusLMIP) for projections
Land Surface Models (LSMs), such as JULES-ES and CABLE used in Australia, serve as essential elements within Earth system modelling frameworks used for projections. They support the simulation of carbon, water, energy, and dynamic vegetation processes, carefully balancing physical accuracy with computational efficiency. Notably, these models exhibit distinct approaches to process representation and parameterisation.
Australia presents a particularly challenging environment for land surface modelling. Most LSMs have been developed and calibrated for Northern Hemisphere hydroclimates, whereas Australia is characterised by pronounced hydroclimate variability, strong land-atmosphere coupling, nutrient-limited ecosystems, diverse vegetation types, and frequent disturbance regimes, especially fire. These features are not always well represented in existing models, contributing to uncertainties in simulations of vegetation dynamics, carbon and hydrological cycles, and associated feedback.
Here we propose the development of an Australian Land Model Intercomparison Project (AusLMIP) to support coordinated evaluation and improvement of LSM performance within the Australian context. Building on established model intercomparison frameworks, AusLMIP aims to (i) identify key processes controlling vegetation, carbon, water and fire dynamics in Australian ecosystems, and (ii) assess how these processes are represented in current LSMs, initially focusing on JULES ES and CABLE. This framework will expand to incorporate additional models facilitating systematic multi-model comparison and benchmarking.
AusLMIP aims at fostering collaborations across ACCESS NRI, CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, and international partners, supporting improved projections of climate, hydrology, fire risk, and ecosystem change, to ultimately enhance national capacity for climate adaptation and resilience.