ESM working group: Meeting notes 2024

Date: 29/02/2024

Participants: 26

Apologies: @JulieA

Chair: @eunpalim

Shared Section

1. Introductions from each group

@debbie_h: Forecasting and Prediction Working Group incorporates Machine Learning (ML), Data Assimilation (DA), seasonal forecasting. Quite disparate groups, but try to do things for each group. Had a good ML session at last workshop, has led to good collaboration since.

No common infrastructure. Not supported by ACCESS-NRI. Working on how ACCESS-NRI could support those areas. Drafting two short papers for guidance: how ACCESS-NRI could support DA into the future, and another on how to support ML into the future.

@nathan-e difficult getting cohesion with these challenges.

@LaurieM co-chair. Earth System Modelling Working Group also somewhat disjointed. Focus on the use of the coupled models: ACCESS-ESM1.5, ACCESS-CM2, also ACCESS-S2. Also interested in coupled climate. Past, future and paleo climate. Ocean/atmos interactions for El Nino. Also for future climate.

Big focus on carbon cycle. Ocean and land carbon cycles.

Last few months trying to get to know each other, find out what others are doing. All want to push forward with ACCESS suite of models. One focus has been adding flexibility of framework. Modifying forcing, particularly ancillary files. Land-sea mask and bathymetry and orography.

Collaborating closely with ACCESS-NRI. Pushing for a more user friendly workflow to expand range of activities in models.

Also want to facilitate collaboration using ACCESS suite. All co-chairs from different institutions with different scientific focus.

2. Triple La Niña experiment

The Triple La Niña experiment that was a joint initiative of the ESM Working Group (Working Group) and F&P Working Group (Working Group )

Triple La Nina of 2020-2022/23. Unusual to persist for three years. Not particularly strong, but 3rd year Australia experience severe flooding and rainfall events.

Preceeded by black summer and Huna Tonga in Jan 2022 could have contributed to persistence.

ACCESS-S real-time forecasts skilfully capture the triple dips of the La Nina event at up to 4-month lead time.

Examine effect on forecast skill of atmospheric initial conditions. Examining forecast differences in topical SST and persistent SAM.

Need 3 datasets:

  • Hindcasts (retrospective forecasts). Used to compute climatology and std dev. Also can compare to previous La Nina to assess skill
  • Standard real-time forecasts with realistic Atmosphere initial conditions
  • Experimental forecasts with unrealistic Atmosphere initial conditions
  • How to access the outputs

Hindcasts are in




Experimental forecasts


18 week forecasts (4 months). 23-member ensembles for experimental forecast.

Should we pre-compute climatology and ensemble mean and store. Would require more space.

What should we do with this data?

Peer-reviewed paper? La Nina, SAM, Australian Rainfall? Encourage ECRs?

Announce availability?

Half-day hackathon?

Who might be interested in a group study?

@dkhutch: don’t want to speak for them, but @nicolamaher and @jemmajeffree couldn’t make it, but might be interested?

NESP planning a special effort on Triple Dip La Nina. This experiment came from discussion in NESP meeting. High customer demand to understand TLN and impact on Australian Climate.

Wanted to contribute to NESP

@eunpalim will Add slides to hive.

@ctychung Plan to have stakeholder based webinar around July/August. Would be good to have results from this presented.

@eunpalim Similar experiments done by @lynnzhou for wet 2022. Large magnitude of wetness was atmosphere driven. If not having large atmospheric impacts (smoke, volcano) how much of the La Nina can we reproduce? Which is most important driver? Atmosphere or Ocean. What more important IOD, SAM? Good opportunity for ECR to understand nature of forecast data and systems.

@aidan: How important is collaboration?

@debbie_h: ACCESS-S hindcast already available. Coordination not required, but coordination is an option if that is people’s wish.

Contributing this effort to NESP would be good.

Not thinking too deep an investigation at this stage. Any contribution welcome.

Discuss possible ACCESS-S2 Training. Gauge interest and requirements

Half-day hackathon? Look at some major events and analyse together?

Ensemble and climatology need more space. Certainly possible. @Aidan:ACCESS-NRI can support training activities.

@debbie_h: Some people want to run ACCESS-S2. Tricky. No documentation. Only 3 people at Bureau can run model. Only set up for forecasting. Limited knowledge of how to do this for sensitivity and scientific experiments. Getting ACCESS-NRI involvement depends on demand. Get in touch with @debbie_h to register interest in using ACCESS-S2.

ESM Working Group Section

3. ESM WG Admin

  • @sebmckenna has volunteered to talk on "SST and ENSO biases in ACCESS-CM2 pacemakers” for the next meeting (2024-03-14T02:00:00Z)

  • We need more speakers! Message any of the co-chairs or @Aidan if you’re keen

@eunpalim: Saw good talks at AMOS. Please feel free to recycle AMOS talks in this forum. Even if seen before, always good to see again and have better understanding.

@ShayneM: putting shallow water model into ACCESS coupled model. Will talk in next few months.

@dkhutch Maybe @Dietmar_Dommenget could present on the paper he is leading and which @dkhutch is collaborating. Collaboration came from ESM WG meetings.

@rachellaw also just had a paper accepted for CMIP7 overview. Could present some slides.

  • Report from Scientific Advisory Committee (@LaurieM). Next SAC Meeting 2024-03-21T03:00:00Z

Reminder of CMIP7 ESMValTool Hackathon. March 12-14 at Aspendale. Probably too late to register. Drop-in session tomorrow.

  • If you want to suggest a topic to cover in the ESM WG meetings reply to this topic and add your idea

  • Do you know anyone who you think would benefit from coming to these meetings? Please invite them! We definitely want ECRs and students to attend too.

4. ESM Shared experiments/ACCESS-NRI resources

  • See the guidelines for accessing working resources. The requirements to access time are very minimal compared to MAS applications. Come and use the resources on offer!

  • lg87 /g/data storage quota has been doubled to 100TB. Note that this is intended for short term storage only (generally maximum of 1 year).

  • ESM project lg87 /g/data storage: 27TB used out of 100TB. 117KSU used 757KSU remaining.

Probably still don’t have a clear process for how experiments that are proposed get resources to run. Filled in proposal. then what? @Aidan: bring it up at a meeting, volunteer to begin running experiment.

5. What’s going on?

CMIP7 fast-track consultation

Need survey by the middle of next week. Put feedback on hive, contact @RachelLaw or fill in survey.

@JulieA three level B positions for new CoE. UNSW advertised now. Another at UniMelb(?) one at Monash(?).

ACCESS Hackathon clashes with next meeting. @aidan will put up a poll to gauge interest.

This is a wiki post , if you want to update any of the details in these meeting notes, or to add your own recollection of what was discussed then edit me rather than replying.

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